Overview
The Applied Population Laboratory prepares population estimates and projections for a diverse set of population groups. Population estimates are generated for the present or the past, while projections refer to future populations. Recently, we have projected school enrollments, local municipal populations, offenders in correctional facilities, high school graduates, and hunters in Wisconsin. Depending on client needs and data availability, estimates and projections can be made to specify age, sex, race/ethnicity, grade, housing, or other variables. Our goals are to help clients better understand current and past population structures and to prepare for a changing future.
One special area of expertise and experience is our School Enrollment Projections Program. This program has been providing enrollment projections to school districts since 1996, since which time we have worked with 110 districts in Wisconsin and surrounding states averaging 20 projects a year. To assist school administrators, business managers, and strategic planners, our professionally trained demographers prepare 10-year enrollment projections by grade. Our central models are based on cohort component projection methodology with detailed modifications to meet the needs of individual school districts.
Alternative models based on housing development, open enrollment, attendance area changes, GIS-based spatial analysis, or other scenarios may also be requested. We provide professional presentations to school boards, community groups, and other interested parties outlining the findings of the projections project and providing credibility to the school district. We work to tailor each project to the needs of the school district and address the local and regional demographic, housing, and economic issues. Our models provide detailed information that is useful for short- and long-term planning for school districts, municipalities, planners, and other organizations.
Our Approach
At the APL, we believe that the most useful estimates and projections require user-specific customization in order to best meet client needs. Our projects do not follow a generic cookie-cutter approach, but rather, we spend time getting to know and understand the client’s needs, deciding on appropriate data sources and methods for the particular project, and producing products that speak to the specific audience we are addressing. Our researchers are innovative and well-versed in various demographic and spatial methodologies that allow us to customize projects effectively.
Data for these projects come from various sources, depending on the nature of the study. Generally, we combine data that provides an accurate count of the population of interest at a specific time (via U.S. Census, enrollment information, and/or other user provided data) with data that is related to how the population is changing, including vital statistics on births and deaths, migration data from IRS or U.S. Census Bureau, yearly changes in school enrollment, and/or housing permits. These data are analyzed, integrated, and aged forward or backward in time in order to generate estimates and projections.
We present clients with final deliverables in various formats, including: charts, maps, tables, brief reports, detailed reports, spreadsheets, customized web applications, or presentations.
Services
If you are interested in learning more about our estimates and projections services, we invite you to explore the examples found at the links below. Past projects have included projecting the institutionalized offender and community supervision populations for the Wisconsin Department of Corrections, projecting the number of hunters in Wisconsin by age, sex, and hunting type for Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and annually updated school enrollment projections for the State of Wisconsin.
Fees for services and timeline for completion vary considerably depending on the scale of the project. For general projection and estimate projects, fees range from $2,000 to $25,000 and timelines range from 6 to 26 weeks. For school enrollment projections, fees range from $3,000 to $15,000 and timelines range from 4 to 12 weeks.
Expertise
Strong expertise in the areas of demography, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), planning, and education policy inform our estimates and projections program area. Each of our staff has post-graduate training in at least one of these areas. Working within a university environment gives the APL access to innovative new technologies and training programs, opportunities to collaborate with nationally renowned demographers, extensive computing and software resources, and a rich interdisciplinary array of approaches. Staff members who manage estimates and projections projects include Jennifer Huck, Sarah Kemp (lead researcher for School Enrollment Projections), Sara Lazenby, and Richelle Winkler.